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Thursday, 27 November 2008

WIll we be voting again soon...?

There has been much talk of an early election, (June 4th is the date suggested), and I think it may well happen. There's no doubt that no matter how good the "rescue package" is and its about as good as it could get, things will still be tough by autumn next year and it won't be a good a time to go to the polls. If the date is June then if three things happen, there will be a Labour Majority;
  1. The recession is not too deep and Labour can associate itself with that being the case
  2. Cameron continues not to build a credible economic alternative strategy
  3. Labour continues to produce policies like the new to rate of tax that make people feel that those who can help more in these tough times are being asked to do so
The journey out of this recession will not be about economics but emotions; "how do I feel about my situation, who do I trust to get us through tough times, is what is being done to get us out of this situation fair" will be the basis on which most people will vote.


kenny murphy said...

I think there will be an election next year. I also suspect it'll be earlier than June. In order for Labour to win i suspect it'll need to be...

Darling has forecast (And i know of no other economist/expert forecasting this..) that we'll be moving out of recession at the end of June as we move into the third quarter.

If this forecast is widely incorrect - and i really do believe it is completely optimistic - then it's game over for Labour.

I feel the Pre budget report hasn't gone down particularly well politically. 'Main street' can't really identify the benefits of a 2.5% VAT cut. Politically i feel a big tax cut for the low paid would have been much better particularly going along with the tax increase for those earning over 150K.(It could have been poited out that Uncle Sam has just elected a President on such a policy)

I think Labour with the 'Budget' it has announced really ought to have made much more of a case (Where's the Spin Mandy!!) for it being 'A 'budget' not for short term political popularity but for the longer term economic benefits of the country.

The 'Do nothing Tories' line is though a potent line from Labour. The Tories are now though championing a 'We're all doomed' and 'Britain is bankrupt' outlook. Labour must look at these unpatriotic attacks as an opportunity.

I still think the Tories are favourites. However, with them only sitting on the low forties in the polls i think the country is still far from convinced.

I was looking at political polling only last night and the Labour polling 1992-1997 was much much more impressive. Proof to me that everything is to play for.

Suzy said...

I am really not too sure that June would be a good time for an election.

I do not think that people have regained trust in Labour which worries me due to the fact, as you so quite rightly state Ewan, the vote would more than likely be an emotional one, people may swing to other parties and look what happened to Scotland due to what I would say was an "emotional" vote :0(.

I hope if an election is called for June that people remember just how fantastic GB was as Chancellor - the man was/is an economic genius in my opinion and I truly feel there is no person better placed to help the UK at this time than GB albeit he is now PM and not Chancellor.

There is absolutely NO chance of the Conservatives winning over Scotland and hopefully with the Glenrothes result people in Scotland *may* have realised that a huge error was made in the Scottish elections (not to mention all the ruined ballot papers). If that is the case, I think Labour could do very well in Scotland but I would worry re the UK as a whole!!!

Ewan said...

Thanks to you both for posting. My nthought is that if we do not o in June any bounce from dealing with the crisis will be lost and we will b seen as "having" to go to the country or hanging on to power for its own sake.

I think the bidget could have done more than 2.5% on VAt and certainly could ahve been better sold but although you are right SUzy, that the Tories won't win here, Kenny to is right, even with sustained support until June, it will be all to play for as the key issue will remain trust.

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